Roulette Odds Of Hitting Red 10 Times
- Roulette Odds Of Hitting Red 10 Times Square
- Roulette Odds Of Hitting Red 10 Times 16
- Roulette Odds Of Hitting Red 10 Times Table Chart
- Roulette Odds Of Hitting Red 10 Times 9 Times
What are the odds of seeing 10 reds in a row on a roulette wheel? The odds of seeing 10 reds one after another are 1 in (2.06) 10 = 1 in 1376. But remember, you cannot bet on 10 spins, only on a single spin. Here the odds are 1 in 2.06. Believing that a certain result is 'due' because of past results is known odds of winning roulette at casino as the gambler's fallacy.The number 19 supposedly top gambling states hit seven straight times at a roulette table at the Rio Casino in Las Vegas on Monday night.Academic reveals the science.
Introduction
The Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken belief that if an independent event has not happened in a long time, then it becomes overdue and more likely. It is also equally incorrect that if an outcome has happened a disproportionate number of times lately, compared to statistical expectations, then it becomes overheated and less likely to occur the next time. An example of this fallacious thinking might be that if the number 23 hasn't been drawn in a 6-49 lottery the last 100 games, then it becomes more likely to be drawn during the next drawing.
Many worthless betting strategies and systems are based on belief in the Gambler's Fallacy. I got the idea for writing about this after reading an 888 online roulette article by Frank Scoblete entitled How to Take Advantage of Roulette Hot Spots. In that article, Scoblete recommends taking a count of each outcome for 3,700 spins in single-zero roulette and 3,800 spins in double-zero roulette in the hunt for 'hot numbers.' Never mind that this would take about 100 hours to make this many observations, assuming the industry standard of 38 spins per hour.
Before going further, let me say that I strongly believe modern roulette wheels made by top brands like Cammegh are extremely precise and any bias would be minuscule compared to the house advantage. Thus, testing a modern roulette for bias would be a total waste of time. Now, testing a 30-year-old hand-me-down wheel in a banana republic might be another story. However, you're on your own if you win a lot of money from said casino and try to leave with it.
That said, if you track 3,800 outcomes in single-zero roulette, the average number of times any number will hit is 3800/38=100. I ran a simulation of over 1.3 trillion spins, counting how many times each number was hit, sorting the outcomes to find the most frequent number and how many times it was observed, and keeping a count of how many times the most frequent number in each simulation was seen.
Hottest Number in 3,800 Spins of Double-Zero Roulette
As a former actuary, I hate to use a layman's term like the 'hottest number,' but that is how gamblers talk so will go with that. That said, following are the results of the count of the hottest number in millions of 3800-spin simulations.
Count of the Hottest Number in 3,800 Spins on Double-Zero Wheel
Statistic | Value |
---|---|
Mean | 122.02 |
Median | 121 |
Mode | 120 |
90th Percentile | 128 |
95th Percentile | 131 |
99th Percentile | 136 |
99.9th Percentile | 142 |
Here is what the table above means in plain simple English.
- The mean, or average, count of the hottest number is 122.02.
- The median count of the most frequent number is 121. This means that over 50% of time the most frequent number appeared 121 times or less, as well as 121 times or more. This is possible because the probability of 121 observations is in both groups.
- The mode, or most count of the hottest number is 120, which happens 8.29% of the time.
- The 90th percentile is the smallest number such that the probability the count of the hottest number is at least 90% .
- The 95th percentile is the smallest number such that the probability the count of the hottest number is at least 95%.
- The 99th percentile is the smallest number such that the probability the count of the hottest number is at least 99%.
- The 99.9th percentile is the smallest number such that the probability the count of the hottest number is at least 99.9%.
Hottest Number in 3,700 Spins of Single-Zero Roulette
The results are very similar with 3,700 spins tracked on a single-zero wheel. Following is a summary of the results.
Count of the Hottest Number in 3,700 Spins on Single-Zero Wheel
Statistic | Value |
---|---|
Mean | 121.90 |
Median | 121 |
Mode | 120 |
90th Percentile | 128 |
95th Percentile | 131 |
99th Percentile | 136 |
99.9th Percentile | 142 |
The following table shows the full results of the simulation on both wheels. The two commulative columns show the probability that the count of the hottest number is the number on the left column or more. For example, the probability the hottest number in 3,700 spins of single-zero roulette is 130 or more is 0.072044.
Summary of the Count of the Hottest Number in 3,700 Spins of Single-Zero Roulette and 3,800 spins of Double-Zero Roulette
Count | Probability Single Zero | Cummulative Single Zero | Probability Double Zero | Cummulative Double Zero |
---|---|---|---|---|
160 or More | 0.000001 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
159 | 0.000000 | 0.000001 | 0.000000 | 0.000001 |
158 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
157 | 0.000001 | 0.000002 | 0.000001 | 0.000002 |
156 | 0.000001 | 0.000003 | 0.000001 | 0.000003 |
155 | 0.000002 | 0.000005 | 0.000002 | 0.000005 |
154 | 0.000003 | 0.000009 | 0.000003 | 0.000008 |
153 | 0.000005 | 0.000013 | 0.000005 | 0.000013 |
152 | 0.000007 | 0.000020 | 0.000008 | 0.000021 |
151 | 0.000012 | 0.000032 | 0.000012 | 0.000033 |
150 | 0.000017 | 0.000049 | 0.000018 | 0.000051 |
149 | 0.000026 | 0.000075 | 0.000027 | 0.000077 |
148 | 0.000038 | 0.000114 | 0.000041 | 0.000118 |
147 | 0.000060 | 0.000174 | 0.000062 | 0.000180 |
146 | 0.000091 | 0.000265 | 0.000092 | 0.000273 |
145 | 0.000132 | 0.000397 | 0.000137 | 0.000409 |
144 | 0.000195 | 0.000592 | 0.000199 | 0.000608 |
143 | 0.000282 | 0.000874 | 0.000289 | 0.000898 |
142 | 0.000409 | 0.001283 | 0.000421 | 0.001319 |
141 | 0.000580 | 0.001863 | 0.000606 | 0.001925 |
140 | 0.000833 | 0.002696 | 0.000860 | 0.002784 |
139 | 0.001186 | 0.003882 | 0.001215 | 0.003999 |
138 | 0.001652 | 0.005534 | 0.001704 | 0.005703 |
137 | 0.002315 | 0.007849 | 0.002374 | 0.008077 |
136 | 0.003175 | 0.011023 | 0.003286 | 0.011363 |
135 | 0.004355 | 0.015378 | 0.004489 | 0.015852 |
134 | 0.005916 | 0.021295 | 0.006088 | 0.021940 |
133 | 0.007939 | 0.029233 | 0.008196 | 0.030136 |
132 | 0.010601 | 0.039834 | 0.010908 | 0.041044 |
131 | 0.013991 | 0.053824 | 0.014384 | 0.055428 |
130 | 0.018220 | 0.072044 | 0.018757 | 0.074185 |
129 | 0.023498 | 0.095542 | 0.024114 | 0.098299 |
128 | 0.029866 | 0.125408 | 0.030603 | 0.128901 |
127 | 0.037288 | 0.162696 | 0.038228 | 0.167130 |
126 | 0.045771 | 0.208467 | 0.046898 | 0.214027 |
125 | 0.055165 | 0.263632 | 0.056310 | 0.270337 |
124 | 0.064853 | 0.328485 | 0.066020 | 0.336357 |
123 | 0.074178 | 0.402662 | 0.075236 | 0.411593 |
122 | 0.081929 | 0.484591 | 0.082885 | 0.494479 |
121 | 0.087158 | 0.571750 | 0.087696 | 0.582174 |
120 | 0.088520 | 0.660269 | 0.088559 | 0.670734 |
119 | 0.084982 | 0.745252 | 0.084406 | 0.755140 |
118 | 0.076454 | 0.821705 | 0.075245 | 0.830385 |
117 | 0.063606 | 0.885312 | 0.061851 | 0.892236 |
116 | 0.048069 | 0.933381 | 0.046111 | 0.938347 |
115 | 0.032432 | 0.965813 | 0.030604 | 0.968952 |
114 | 0.019117 | 0.984930 | 0.017664 | 0.986616 |
113 | 0.009567 | 0.994496 | 0.008614 | 0.995230 |
112 | 0.003894 | 0.998390 | 0.003420 | 0.998650 |
111 | 0.001257 | 0.999647 | 0.001065 | 0.999715 |
110 | 0.000297 | 0.999944 | 0.000243 | 0.999958 |
109 | 0.000050 | 0.999994 | 0.000038 | 0.999996 |
108 or Less | 0.000006 | 1.000000 | 0.000004 | 1.000000 |
Count of the Hottest Numbers in 300 Spins in Double-Zero Roulette
What if you don't want to spend 100 hours gathering data on a single wheel? Some casinos are kind enough to give you, on a silver platter, the number of times in the last 300 spins the four 'hottest' and 'coolest' numbers occurred. The image at the top of the page shows an example taken on a double-zero wheel at the Venetian.
In 300 spins, the average number of wins on a double-zero wheel for any number is 300/38=7.9. As you can see from the image above, the four hottest numbers were 20, 5, 29, and 2, which occurred 15, 14, 13, and 12 times respectively. Is this unusual? No. In a simulation of over 80 billion spins, the most frequent number, in 300-spin experiments, appeared most frequently at 14 times with a probability of 27.4%. The most likely total of the second, third, and fourth most frequent numbers was 13, 12, and 12 times respectively, with probabilities of 37.9%, 46.5%, and 45.8%. So the results of the 'hottest' numbers in the image above were a little more flat than average.
The following table shows the probabilities of the four hottest numbers in 300 spins of double-zero roulette. For example, the probability the third most frequent number happens 15 times is 0.009210.
Count of the Hottest Four Numbers in 300 Spins on a Double-Zero Wheel
Observations | Probability Most Frequent | Probability Second Most Frequent | Probability Third Most Frequent | Probability Fourth Most Frequent |
---|---|---|---|---|
25 or More | 0.000022 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
24 | 0.000051 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
23 | 0.000166 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
22 | 0.000509 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
21 | 0.001494 | 0.000001 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
20 | 0.004120 | 0.000009 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
19 | 0.010806 | 0.000075 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
18 | 0.026599 | 0.000532 | 0.000003 | 0.000000 |
17 | 0.060526 | 0.003263 | 0.000060 | 0.000001 |
16 | 0.123564 | 0.016988 | 0.000852 | 0.000020 |
15 | 0.212699 | 0.071262 | 0.009210 | 0.000598 |
14 | 0.274118 | 0.215025 | 0.068242 | 0.011476 |
13 | 0.212781 | 0.379097 | 0.283768 | 0.117786 |
12 | 0.067913 | 0.270747 | 0.464748 | 0.457655 |
11 | 0.004615 | 0.042552 | 0.168285 | 0.383900 |
10 | 0.000017 | 0.000448 | 0.004830 | 0.028544 |
9 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000001 | 0.000020 |
Total | 1.000000 | 1.000000 | 1.000000 | 1.000000 |
The next table shows the mean, median, and mode for the count of the first, second, third, and fourth hottest numbers in millions of 300-spin simulations of double-zero roulette.
Summary of the Count of the Four Most Frequent Numbers in 300 Spins of Double-Zero Wheel
Order | Mean | Median | Mode |
---|---|---|---|
First | 14.48 | 14 | 14 |
Second | 13.07 | 13 | 13 |
Third | 12.27 | 12 | 12 |
Fourth | 11.70 | 12 | 12 |
Count of the Coolest Numbers in 300 Spins in Double-Zero Roulette
The next table shows the probability of each count of the four collest numbers in 300 spins of double-zero roulette.
Count of the Coolest Four Numbers in 300 Spins on a Double-Zero Wheel
Observations | Probability Least Frequent | Probability Second Least Frequent | Probability Third Least Frequent | Probability Fourth Least Frequent |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 0.012679 | 0.000063 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
1 | 0.098030 | 0.005175 | 0.000135 | 0.000002 |
2 | 0.315884 | 0.088509 | 0.012041 | 0.001006 |
3 | 0.416254 | 0.420491 | 0.205303 | 0.063065 |
4 | 0.150220 | 0.432638 | 0.595139 | 0.522489 |
5 | 0.006924 | 0.052945 | 0.185505 | 0.401903 |
6 | 0.000008 | 0.000180 | 0.001878 | 0.011534 |
Total | 1.000000 | 1.000000 | 1.000000 | 1.000000 |
The next table shows the mean, median, and mode for the count of the first, second, third, and fourth coolest numbers in the 300-spin simulations of double-zero roulette.
Summary of the count of the Four Least Frequent Numbers on a Double-Zero Wheel
Order | Mean | Median | Mode |
---|---|---|---|
Least | 2.61 | 3 | 3 |
Second Least | 3.44 | 3 | 4 |
Third Least | 3.96 | 4 | 4 |
Fourth Least | 4.36 | 4 | 4 |
Count of the Hottest Numbers in 300 Spins of Single-Zero Roulette
In 300 spins, the average number of wins on a single-zero wheel for any number is 300/37=8.11. The next table shows the probability of each count of the four coolest numbers in 300 spins of double-zero roulette. For example, the probability the third most frequent number happens 15 times is 0.015727.
Count of the Hottest Four Numbers in 300 Spins on a Single-Zero Wheel
Observations | Probability Most Frequent | Probability Second Most Frequent | Probability Third Most Frequent | Probability Fourth Most Frequent |
---|---|---|---|---|
25 or More | 0.000034 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
24 | 0.000078 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
23 | 0.000245 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
22 | 0.000728 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
21 | 0.002069 | 0.000002 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
20 | 0.005570 | 0.000018 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
19 | 0.014191 | 0.000135 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
18 | 0.033833 | 0.000905 | 0.000008 | 0.000000 |
17 | 0.074235 | 0.005202 | 0.000125 | 0.000001 |
16 | 0.144490 | 0.025286 | 0.001624 | 0.000050 |
15 | 0.232429 | 0.097046 | 0.015727 | 0.001286 |
14 | 0.269735 | 0.259360 | 0.101259 | 0.021054 |
13 | 0.177216 | 0.382432 | 0.347102 | 0.175177 |
12 | 0.043266 | 0.208137 | 0.429715 | 0.508292 |
11 | 0.001879 | 0.021373 | 0.102979 | 0.283088 |
10 | 0.000003 | 0.000103 | 0.001461 | 0.011049 |
9 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000002 |
Total | 1.000000 | 1.000000 | 1.000000 | 1.000000 |
The next table shows the mean, median, and mode for the count of the first, second, third, and fourth hottest numbers in millions of 300-spin simulations of double-zero roulette.
Summary — Count of the Four Hottest Numbers — Double-Zero Wheel
Order | Mean | Median | Mode |
---|---|---|---|
First | 14.74 | 15 | 14 |
Second | 13.30 | 13 | 13 |
Third | 12.50 | 12 | 12 |
Fourth | 11.92 | 12 | 12 |
Count of the Coolest Numbers in 300 Spins in Single-Zero Roulette
The next table shows the probability of each count of the four coolest numbers in 300 spins of double-zero roulette. For example, the probability the third coolest numbers will be observed five times is 0.287435.
Count of the Coolest Four Numbers in 300 Spins on a Double-Zero Wheel
Observations | Probability Least Frequent | Probability Second Least Frequent | Probability Third Least Frequent | Probability Fourth Least Frequent |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 0.009926 | 0.000038 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
1 | 0.079654 | 0.003324 | 0.000068 | 0.000001 |
2 | 0.275226 | 0.062392 | 0.006791 | 0.000448 |
3 | 0.419384 | 0.350408 | 0.140173 | 0.034850 |
4 | 0.200196 | 0.484357 | 0.557907 | 0.406702 |
5 | 0.015563 | 0.098547 | 0.287435 | 0.521238 |
6 | 0.000050 | 0.000933 | 0.007626 | 0.036748 |
7 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000001 | 0.000013 |
Total | 1.000000 | 1.000000 | 1.000000 | 1.000000 |
The next table shows the mean, median, and mode for the count of the first, second, third, and fourth coolest numbers in the 300-spin simulations of single-zero roulette.
Summary of the count of the Four Least Frequent Numbers on a Single-Zero Wheel
Order | Mean | Median | Mode |
---|---|---|---|
Least | 2.77 | 3 | 3 |
Second Least | 3.62 | 4 | 4 |
Third Least | 4.15 | 4 | 4 |
Fourth Least | 4.56 | 5 | 5 |
The least I hope you have learned from this article is it is to be expected that certain numbers will come up more than others. To put it in other words, it is natural that some numbers will be 'hot' and some 'cool.' In fact, such differences from the mean are highly predictable. Unfortunately, for roulette players, we don't know which numbers will be 'hot,' just that some of them almost certainly will be. I would also like to emphasize, contrary to the Gambler's Fallacy, that on a fair roulette wheel that every number is equally likely every spin and it makes no difference what has happened in the past.
Finally, it should not be interpreted that we give an endorsement to the 888 Casino, which we linked to earlier. I am very bothered by this rule in their rule 6.2.B. Before getting to that, let me preface with a quote from rule 6.1, which I'm fine with.
'If we reasonably determine that you are engaging in or have engaged in fraudulent or unlawful activity or conducted any prohibited transaction (including money laundering) under the laws of any jurisdiction that applies to you (examples of which are set out at section 6.2 below), any such act will be considered as a material breach of this User Agreement by you. In such case we may close your account and terminate the User Agreement in accordance with section 14 below and we are under no obligation to refund to you any deposits, winnings or funds in your account.' -- Rule 6.1
Let's go further now:
The following are some examples of 'fraudulent or unlawful activity' -- Rule 6.2
Next, here is one of many examples listed as rule 6.2.B
'Unfair Betting Techniques: Utilising any recognised betting techniques to circumvent the standard house edge in our games, which includes but is not limited to martingale betting strategies, card counting as well as low risk betting in roulette such as betting on red/black in equal amounts.' -- Rule 6.2.B
Let me make it perfectly clear that all betting systems, including the Martingale, not only can't circumvent the house edge, they can't even dent it. It is very mathematically ignorant on the part of the casino to fear any betting system. Why would any player trust this casino when the casino can seize all their money under the reason that the player was using a betting system? Any form of betting could be called a betting system, including flat betting. Casino 888 normally has a pretty good reputation, so I'm surprised they would lower themselves to this kind of rogue rule.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
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This means that you can afford to lose your bet 9 times in a row, but not 10 times. Assuming you pick a color (red), what is the probability you will get wiped out here. If you lose on the 10th bet, you only have $1 left.
Well, there are 20 colors that aren't red in the roulette wheel.
So that means that the probability of losing a bet is (20/38) which equals 52.6%
Now, the probability of losing 10 bets in a row is probably (20/38) ^ 10
I get .00163
That means that out of 10000 spins, only 16 times will a streak of 10 or more occur.
Is this math right, or am I missing something?
Your math is right. 16 wipe outs per 1,000 attempts.
I think you're off by a magnitude of 10. It should be 16/10,000
I mean, let's say you lose 3 times then win, or 7 times then win, or all 9 times then win. When you win and add up all your money, you're up one whole dollar.
Roulette Odds Of Hitting Red 10 Times Square
Are you really prepared to risk $1,024 to win one buck?Well, even if you said yes, the casino isn't prepared to let you try. Casinos typically do not have that much of a range between the minimum and maximum bet.
Additionally, you're gonna have to multiply your bankroll by 5 (or maybe 10) as typical casino minimums are $5 (or $10).
Administrator
That means that out of 10000 spins, only 16 times will a streak of 10 or more occur.
Is this math right, or am I missing something?
Each of those 16 times you will lose $1023, which is $16368 lost
If you won ALL the other 9840 wagers, that would give you $9840 of winnings to offset against those losses. But that would be pretty miraculous.
You'd maybe win about half (18/38) or 4661 of wagers giving you a more realistic $4661 of winnings to offset against your losses.
Academic really as on wipeout number one you are wiped out.
Roulette Odds Of Hitting Red 10 Times 16
Marty is good for when you have £1000 and NEED $1001 to escape a firing squad or fly out of a war zone. Other than that it's just a fun way to lose your money.
Roulette Odds Of Hitting Red 10 Times Table Chart
20 losers, 18 winners. 38 total.
(20/38) ^ 10 = 0.00163103767 ~ 0.00164 = 0.164% [rounded to 0.164% to give martingaler benefit of the doubt].
For ease of use, let's say you decide to play 100,000 cycles (a cycle is when you first bet $1, until you win or lose 10 in a row...a cycle is NOT 100,000 wagers).
For 100K cycles, you expect to lose 164 of those. The remaining 99,846 cycles, you will win $1. For the 164 losing cycles, you will lose $1,023.
164 * 1,023 = $167,772.
99,846 * 1 = $99,846.
$167,772 - $99,846 = -$67,926.
Administrator
164 * 1,023 = $167,772.
99,846 * 1 = $99,846.
$167,772 - $99,846 = -$67,926.
Maybe More accurate. Equally devastatingly bad.
Actually, RS, 100,000 cycles would be way more than 100,000 wagers, More like 200,000. so wouldn't likely number of lost cycles be about double too.. Cannot be bothered to do the proper maths right now. Hmmmmm. will give more thought to RS's cycles approach to see if reality is dumb to the tune of 67K or something maybe half or so of that.